President Tsai Showing Off Her Power to Lai？
World Journal Editorial, April 19, 2024
The national security personnel of President-elect William Lai has not been officially announced. However, when President Tsai Ing-wen received a delegation of New Zealand lawmakers, she "announced" on behalf of Lai that Secretary-General Lin Chia-lung of the Office of the President will become the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Foreign Minister Joseph Wu will take over as secretary-general of the National Security Council. President Tsai’s unexpected move has generated discussion within the political circle.
Lai has maintained that he will continue President Tsai’s course on national security policy. He will also maintain President Tsai’s “four musts” to maintain the status quo and the "four pillars" as his commitment to governing. During the election, President Tsai was also intensively anticipated to hand over the baton to Lai. On the night before the election, Tsai Ing-wen raised up Lai's hand, and said, "What Tsai has not had time to do, let Lai Ching-te continue it and work hard for Taiwan."
It’s not just lip service. The new national security personnel of the Lai Ching-te administration is basically a reshuffling of the national security personnel under the Tsai administration. The current Secretary-General Wellington Koo of the National Security Council will be transferred to the position of Minister of National Defense. Last year, Koo and Wu went to Washington for a seven-hour high-level meeting with the United States on national security. Also present at the meeting was Hsiao Bi-khim, then representative to the United States. Vice President-elect Hsiao had also been regarded as the future policy executor of national security diplomacy. Such a national security team is familiar with the United States and also enhances the credibility of the incoming Lai administration.
The appointment of Lin as the next foreign minister was full of twists and turns. It is said that Lai held talks with Lin three times. Lin originally wanted to seek the position of premier. He even refused the position of foreign minister as it might hinder the future election process. When Lai’s personnel were revealed, Lin was not included, which caused strong dissatisfaction within the party and even public attacks. Based on considerations such as the balance of factions, President Tsai intervened, and Lin finally agreed to be foreign minister. This personnel arrangement is tantamount to a display of Tsai’s political strength. Tsai’s “early announcement” ensures that the arrangement will not change, but it also reveals the subtle relationship between Tsai and Lai.
Lai said he respects Tsai, and the process of Lai's challenge to Tsai in the party's primary election four years ago ended in peace. Lai must respect Tsai to consolidate power; however, in practice, no president necessarily wants a "former president" to openly give advice, whether the "former president" is Ma Ying-jeou who just met Chinese President Xi Jinping for the second time, or Chen Shui-bian. What's more, Tsai is still the current president and the baton has not yet been handed over, so Lai cannot say this.
As Lai’s deputy, Hsiao originally had the intention of assisting Lai, who was inexperienced in national security affairs, while also resolving concerns on the part of the United States. As President Tsai’s close associate, Hsiao can also maintain the communication channels for mutual interaction after President Tsai leaves office. Also because of the political commitment of "Tsai rules and Hsiao follows," the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has elevated Tsai to be the de facto symbolic leader whose status in the DPP is unmatched. Coupled with the process of intervening in appointing Lin, it shows that Tsai has a super-factional position in the DPP. These arrangements and operations will naturally become Tsai’s advantage in the post-Tsai era.
Constitutionally, the most important power of the president is national defense and diplomacy. It is worth noting that Lai almost completely copied President Tsai's policies and personnel. Is this a temporary expedient, or is it truly "relying on the president's will"? President Tsai also intends to use actions to convey the meaning of handing over power to the vice president. This time, she especially took Lai to participate in the national security meeting, the launching and naming of the home-built submarine, and a briefing on the Hai Kun submarine. It is said that Lai stated on the spot that the next seven submarines would be completed altogether, and his determination to support national defense was quite amazing. However, Lai's "extraordinary courage" in the submarine construction policy also worried many defense experts.
Although President-elect Lai is ambitious, given the current reality that the United States and China co-administer the Taiwan Strait and are fully committed to preventing accidents therein, Lai must exercise restraint for a period of time and adhere to President Tsai’s course of "Republic of China (Taiwan)" as stated in her inaugural speech. It is a clear statement to maintain the status quo. However, once Lai has gained a certain degree of confidence in the presidency and wants to start up "Lai's presidential performance,” in addition to taking an active role in domestic affairs, he may adopt strategies on national security policy, such as the “social transformation and national reconstruction” he spoke of when he attended the commemoration ceremony for pro-democracy activist Cheng Nan-jung. The complex and specific connotations of “national reconstruction,” and whether it would impact the current U.S.-China-Taiwan relationship has also generated discussion.
Looking back on President Tsai’s eight years of political achievements, the most important thing is that she completely adheres to U.S. policy and has also established herself as a political leader with a well-known international reputation. President Tsai hopes to play a certain international role after leaving office, and intends to arrange visits to Europe and the United States to do something to "brighten Taiwan." But it is worth observing whether Tsai will help the government by playing a guiding role after leaving office. President Tsai once told the Nobel Prize Chemistry laureate Yuan T. Lee that it will no longer be her business after 2024. Will "Former President" Tsai really retire? Probably no one in Taipei’s political circles would believe she would.